DeSantis Made Iowa the Super Bowl

If DeSantis loses, it's over.

Well, the big day is nearly here. Tomorrow, on Monday January 15th Iowans will brave the cold and snow to officially kick off the 2024 Republican primary by voting for their choice for the Republican nominee for President in the first GOP caucus. I predict that Trump will win and Florida Governor Ron DeSantis will face a decisive and humiliating defeat.

Even DeSantis’ most loyal supporters in the media have begun to brace themselves for this impending reality. Once defiant predictions that DeSantis would not only win Iowa, but win in a landslide have been replaced with dismissive acknowledgments that Trump is likely to win, but not by a landslide himself—“Trump might win by 13 points but not 30!”

Whether DeSantis comes in second or third, or even fourth I don’t know; but, I am certain he will not win in Iowa. Regardless of the outcome, no-one can attribute DeSantis’ impending loss to any lack of effort or desire on his part—DeSantis will have left it all on the field in Iowa, so to speak.

No candidate has made a greater effort to woo Iowa caucus voters than Ron DeSantis. Not only has DeSantis spent an exorbitant amount of time physically campaigning in the state (even while he’s the current Governor of Florida), but he has also successfully courted countless endorsements in the state ahead of the primary; chief among them the Iowa Governor Kim Reynolds, herself and the supposedly influential Evangelical leader Bob Vander Plaats.

Historically speaking, the Iowa caucus outcome is of little importance. The last time the winner of the Iowa caucus went on to win the Republican Party nomination was more than two decades ago in 2000 when George W. Bush won. Trump won in 2020 but there was no legitimate challenge due to his status as the incumbent, so it’s really not even relevant.

The Iowa caucus’ historic insignificance is not a reflection of any insignificance of either Iowa or Iowans, by the way, but rather Iowa’s position as the first caucus on the primary schedule. To make a sport’s analogy—winning the first football game in either the NFL or NCAA has little bearing on the season as a whole or the final result.

Typically the games—or caucuses in this case—become more important as the football or primary season progresses and typically a lot can change—and does—between the first game or first Iowa caucus and the playoffs and Super Tuesday or even the eventual convention.

So why does Iowa seem to have such a magnified and even exaggerated importance this time?

For starters, in previous GOP primaries each candidate in a crowded field of candidates each tries to convince a mostly agnostic GOP voter base—open minded and undecided individuals—that he or she should be the nominee. In this case, however, a majority of Republicans have already made up their minds about the nominee—supporting Trump—and the very small field of hopefuls is trying desperately to convince voters to change their minds.

Consequently, the DeSantis campaign in particular settled long ago on a strategy to turn the typically inconsequential Iowa caucus into the Super Bowl. I’m not sure that DeSantis had any other strategic option given the growing calls for the candidates to drop out. Both reality and polling have consistently reaffirmed that Trump will be the Republican nominee for President.

In light of this, DeSantis has established Iowa as a winner takes all race.

A Trump victory in Iowa will confirm that Trump cannot be defeated in the primary and thus ultimately end the primary contest. DeSantis and Haley will stay in at least through New Hampshire—CNN already organized a debate—but any belief that DeSantis or Haley could ultimately beat Trump, however unrealistic and naive, will be squashed.

A DeSantis win in Iowa is desperately needed by the campaign to change the narrative that Trump is the nominee-in-waiting. A DeSantis win would be a chink in Trump’s otherwise impenetrable armor. An Iowa win would allow DeSantis to transform his image—from jealous and ungrateful understudy to legitimate and serious contender.

But in raising the stakes of Iowa so high, DeSantis has also trapped himself. If DeSantis loses in Iowa, there is no justification for his campaign to continue. After all, if DeSantis gave Iowa his all and came up short, why should DeSantis perform any better elsewhere?

The reality is still, as it has always been, that Trump will be the nominee. DeSantis could win Iowa on Monday and he still wouldn’t win the nomination. This is because he’s the Deion Sanders coached UC Boulder Buffaloes—not devoid of talent but also not ready to win a national championship.

Sanders’ Buffaloes upset nationally ranked TCU last season. For a moment naive people actually entertained the notion that UC Boulder was a serious college football team. This narrative was brief because over the course of the season the Buffaloes proved themselves to be mediocre as they were blown out over and over again.

But I have a feeling that DeSantis won’t get to savor temporary victory like the Buffaloes did against TCU and that’s good for America. On Monday DeSantis will lose. His efforts are commendable, but it’s time to end the charade, go back to work as the Governor of Florida, and back our candidate—Trump.

DeSantis made Iowa Super Bowl Monday. If he loses, it’s over.